“The opposition against the regime in Iran is strong and persistent. At the same time, the international community considers to impose sanctions against Iran because of its nuclear weapons program. Such sanctions may strengthen the regime and weaken the opposition. There is broad support of the nuclear program inside Iran. Nuclear sanctions will strengthen the perception of an external enemy, strengthen the support for the regime and turn the focus away from the opposition's demands for democracy and human rights”, says the president of the Oslo Center, Kjell Magne Bondevik in this article.

By Kjell Magne Bondevik, president of the Oslo Center for Peace and Human Rights

The unrest following the presidential election last June has not subsided. Huge crowds have participated in repeated manifestations. They risk their lives and security. Many are killed, many have been arrested and the regime continues the harassment of human rights activists. Nevertheless, the resistance to the leadership is strengthening.

The situation has traits in common with the movement that led to the Iranian revolution in 1979. At that time, there were also numerous and persistent demonstrations. The opposition tends to use important dates in Iranian history as points of departure for the demonstrations. The next may be January 16th, the anniversary of the Shah’s departure from the country.

Under strong pressure
The supreme religious leader, Ali Khamenei, is also the foremost political leader. Like his predecessor, ayatollah Khomeini, he has tried to be a rallying point for as many Iranians as possible. But now he does not succeed with this. Following his clear cut support for president Mahmoud Achmadinejad he has become a disintegrating leader. When there are shouts in the street for “death to Khamenei”, it is a sensationally strong expression of the prevailing situation in the country. The regime is under strong pressure from the different opposition groups. The question is how long it can resist the pressure. As Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi said in a recent CNN Interview: The regime’s harassment of the demonstrators will only increase the resistance of the opposition.

Change will come
I believe change will come. The point in time is impossible to predict. No matter how, change must come from within. It is important, however, that the international community behave in a manner that will strengthen the struggle for democracy and human rights in Iran. The world community must consider the nuclear issue in this perspective. There is good reason to react to Iran’s failing cooperation with the surrounding world, in particular with the International Atomic Energy Agency. There is great fear of Iran developing nuclear weapons, not only nuclear energy. It is easy to understand why the UN is considering sanctions against Iran due to lacking follow up of UN resolutions).

Careful consierations needed
One must, however, consider carefully the effect of sanctions in the present tense situation. Iran’s nuclear program enjoys broad support. “Atomic sanctions” will reinforce the notion of an “external enemy”, strengthen the support of the regime and deviate focus away from the demands of the opposition for democracy and human rights. If the sanctions were to contain economic elements, it might provide the government with a possibility to push responsibility for economic problems onto the international community. As Shirin Ebadi has stated: Sanctions against Iran’s nuclear program will not hit the Islamic regime; it will only strengthen the nationalistic forces in Iran.

Must effect the regime, not the people
Possible sanctions would need to have a different rationale and hit the regime; first of all the mighty Revolutionary Guard (by a weapon embargo for instance), and not the people. Otherwise, sanctions could counter the development towards democracy and human rights that the courageous opposition in the country are now risking their lives for. We also need Iran as an active and constructive partner, not only in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq. The international community must therefore consider carefully how the way it acts will affect the situation.